Hedera at Risk of 40% Price Drop If Historical Pattern Repeats

Hedera saw impressive gains earlier in July, rising 56% in a matter of weeks. But recent price action suggests the momentum may be fading, with a decline of more than 11% over the past seven days.

The recent drop may look like a normal cooldown, but a closer look shows a pattern that is hard to ignore. Past drops, weaker momentum, and negative technical signs suggest the decline might continue. If these patterns hold, HBAR may be heading for a deeper correction of up to 40%.

Repeating Patterns From Previous Peaks

It is typical for tokens to experience consolidation following a strong rally. However, HBAR’s current decline is occurring at a level where past trend reversals have frequently started, making the situation more worrisome.

Consider what happened in March 2025. After climbing to $0.26, HBAR's decline from its all-time high stood at roughly 53.7%. That point turned into a key inflection area. Within just a few weeks, the price fell 47% and bottomed near $0.14.

Now, as of July 22, HBAR has reached $0.27, with a drawdown of 52%. The setup looks very similar. Since hitting that level, the token has already dropped 11%, raising the possibility that history might be repeating itself.

The 50–60% drawdown range is critical because it's often where long-term investors start to take profits. This becomes especially relevant when market momentum fades. Many traders track recovery zones based on percentages, not just dollar values. HBAR is once again in that range.

If the price falls another 40% from $0.27, it would land near $0.16, which happens to be a key support level. That overlap should not be overlooked.

Bearish Technical Signals Are Starting to Emerge

Beyond past market patterns, short-term technical indicators are starting to show signs of weakness. One of the key signals is a potential "death cross" forming on HBAR’s 4-hour chart, where the 20-period EMA looks ready to cross below the 50-period EMA.

While this hasn’t happened yet, the formation is taking shape. It’s a classic sign that momentum may be shifting. The 4-hour chart often picks up trend changes earlier than the daily timeframe, which makes this development more significant.

Adding to the concern, the Bull Bear Power Index has just turned negative. This suggests sellers may be gaining control. If downward pressure continues and the crossover confirms, momentum traders could push the price lower, especially if the broader altcoin rally starts to fade.

Recent gains have been fueled by altcoin optimism. But technical setups like this often override sentiment. Even tokens with strong fundamentals can experience sharp pullbacks when the market mood changes.

Key Support Levels Traders Should Be Watching

HBAR is trading close to $0.23, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level calculated from the recent low of $0.12 up to the July high near $0.29. This level has provided short-term support, but it now appears to be weakening.

If the $0.23 level breaks, the next potential support lies at $0.212, aligning with the 0.5 retracement. A deeper decline could bring the price down toward $0.19 and eventually $0.16. The $0.16 area is notable, as it matches both a previous correction zone and a psychologically significant round number.

On the upside, a move above $0.25 would challenge the current bearish outlook by invalidating the recent death cross. Such a scenario would suggest renewed buyer interest and a possible revival of momentum in mid-cap altcoins. At present, however, trading volumes remain subdued, and momentum appears to be fading.

What to Expect Going Forward?

HBAR has seen a notable rally, yet the current signs call for caution. Historical drawdowns, a weakening technical framework, and delicate support levels indicate that further declines are likely.

A correction of 40% from recent peaks may seem steep, but it matches previous patterns seen with HBAR. The key for investors will be to watch how the price performs around $0.23 and whether support zones can resist selling pressure.