Analysts Say Altcoins May Be Near the End of the Bear Market

The altcoin sector is wrapping up the year under pressure, with total capitalization (TOTAL2) down roughly 30% from the highest point in 2025. Many investors are likely to see their portfolios finish the year with losses. Despite this, some analysts think the market may have already seen its hardest period.

Market Lows Could Precede a Rebound

Data from CryptoQuant indicates that only around 3% of altcoins on market are trading above their 200-day moving average, one of the lowest levels recorded. Analyst Darkfost attributes this to cautious investor behavior and limited liquidity. Many investors are prioritizing capital preservation over exposure to volatile assets, leaving parts of the market undervalued.

Coins with strong fundamentals such as ETH, TON, and SOL remain below long-term averages despite their potential. In this case, negative sentiment, rather than underlying weaknesses, may be keeping prices down.

At the same time, market lows often coincide with favorable conditions for buyers. Large investors usually take advantage of weak retail sentiment, buying at better prices. Darkfost notes that while it may seem counterintuitive, these periods often offer some of the most attractive opportunities, reflecting crypto’s cyclical nature.

Retail Disinterest and Institutional Activity

A lack of retail interest can also signal a potential market bottom. As general attention drops, large investors can accumulate without drawing notice. X analyst CrediBULL Crypto noted, “Capital isn't scarce - attention is”, highlighting a typical market dynamic.

"Capital isn't scarce- attention is."

And the #1 driver of attention is when "number go up" quickly.

Market bottoms (like the one I believe we are forming now) are marked by un-interest and the absence of "retail".

The big boys quietly load up at the bottom when retail is… https://t.co/cSkopoUXtw

— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) December 21, 2025

The process tends to happen in stages. Retail investors initially pull back, creating a quiet period. During this time, whales and institutions slowly buy, preparing for a rebound. As early signs of recovery appear, retail gradually returns, boosting price movement. What looks like inactivity can actually be the lead-up to the next upward trend. In the past, this pattern often led to strong recoveries, especially for altcoins with good fundamentals.

Technical Indicators Suggest Stabilization

Technical signs show altcoins might be near a turning point. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe says current altcoin market cap levels act as strong support, where prices could stabilize or bounce. This may be a key area for investors who want some exposure but with controlled risk.

The #Altcoin market capitalization looks quite good.

The sentiment has been as bad as we can all see on social media, and #Altcoins have gone down all the way towards the wick of October 10th.

Ultimately, it looks like we're on a crucial level of support and I think that it's… pic.twitter.com/i6QQhQjSEO

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 21, 2025

Other indicators reinforce this view. Excluding the top 10 coins, the altcoin market cap ratio is at its strongest support since 2017. Dominance figures resemble levels during the COVID-19 downturn, which later saw substantial recoveries.

Altcoin dominance is now at Covid crash level.

Alts are at the end of a bear market, next comes the recovery.

Are you ready for it? pic.twitter.com/13rWvnIpK1

— Gordon 🐂 (@GordonGekko) December 21, 2025

Still, caution is needed. Venture capital is modest, and market sentiment may take time to recover. An altcoin season may not start immediately, making dollar-cost averaging a sensible approach for late 2025.

Will the Bear Market End Soon?

Although challenges remain, signs indicate that the altcoin market downturn may be nearing its final stage. Low trading activity, cautious investor sentiment, and strong technical support suggest a period of stabilization. While nothing is certain, historical patterns show that periods of disinterest and consolidation often come before significant recoveries.