Bitcoin Unlikely to Replicate January’s Breakout According to Analyst

Bitcoin started 2025 strong, and many traders hoped for the same result again. That earlier surge has now slowed, and analysts are more careful about expecting the same type of rally as we move toward 2026. For now, there are several factors that make a repeat of January’s breakout more difficult.

Market Sentiment Is Weighing Down Expectations

Ophelia Snyder, co-founder of 21Shares, said some of the forces behind today’s market volatility may take longer to calm than many expect. These include macro pressures, changes in liquidity, and unexpected shocks. This view is common among traders, especially after the October liquidation that cut $19 billion from the crypto market and changed short-term expectations.

January often brings fresh inflows to Bitcoin ETFs as investors rebalance. Snyder called this a normal seasonal pattern. Those inflows helped Bitcoin reach $109,000 in early January 2025, just before Donald Trump’s inauguration, when traders briefly believed his plans could push the market higher.

The tone shifted soon after. Bitcoin hit a high of $125,100 on October 5, then dropped sharply a few days later. Sentiment weakened and investors became more cautious. It is interesting because traders often claim Bitcoin ignores macro trends, yet the recent drop followed global risk patterns very closely.

Bitcoin now trades near $92,076, almost 10% lower over the past month, after losing the $92.3K level many analysts were watching. Snyder says the weakness is not about crypto fundamentals, but part of a wider risk-off move hitting stocks, commodities, and digital assets at the same time.

Why January May Be Different for Bitcoin This Time?

Snyder does not dismiss a rebound fully. But she says repeating January’s gains would need a big improvement in market sentiment, which the current conditions do not support. Even small optimism can move ETF flows, but lasting confidence requires more than seasonal portfolio changes.

In past years, early-January rallies came with rising liquidity and positive macro signals. Now, the market faces tighter credit, geopolitical concerns, and strong gold performance. When traditional investors favor gold, Bitcoin loses some of its appeal.

Analysts also point to crypto narrative fatigue. Traders are waiting for a catalyst but don’t expect one soon. The main topics focus on ETF flows, miner activity, and L2 developments, but none have the urgency seen in early 2025.

Still, markets can surprise. Trends can shift fast if liquidity improves or new ETF products appear on platforms like Charles Schwab or Vanguard. Snyder says this is possible, but the obstacles for a big rally remain high.

What May Push Bitcoin Up or Down?

Despite a cautious outlook, Snyder stays optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. She sees support from growing Bitcoin ETFs, wider government adoption of crypto, and rising demand for alternatives to gold. These trends are often noted in research from Galaxy Digital and K33 Research.

However, a risk-off mood in markets could reduce crypto inflows, especially if stocks become volatile. Strength in gold could also divert capital that might otherwise flow into Bitcoin.

Still, now all experts agree. BitMine chair Tom Lee expects Bitcoin to reach a new high by January 2026, saying ETF demand and shrinking exchange supply will outweigh today’s weak sentiment.

There’s a mild split in views: some see the correction as temporary, others as a warning. Both agree Bitcoin is less predictable during risk-off periods, which often last longer than expected.

What to Expect Next?

All in all, Bitcoin might not repeat the explosive surge from January 2025, yet this does not indicate a declining market. Sentiment can change fast if macro trends stabilize or new investment options appear. For now, key things to watch are ETF flows, global liquidity, and the ongoing balance between gold and digital assets.