Toncoin Dips 7% Following $558M Treasury News and Whale Activity

Toncoin saw a notable decline this week, dropping more than 7% within 24 hours to trade near $3.29. This decline followed news of Verb Technology’s $558 million treasury, which initially sparked optimism but quickly led to increased selling. With trading volume rising by 58 percent and price direction shifting, traders are wondering whether it's a temporary dip or a more sustained reversal.

Treasury Announcement Triggers Profit-Taking

Verb Technology’s announcement of a $558 million private placement to build the first publicly traded Toncoin treasury was meant to be a milestone. It was pitched as a vote of confidence in Toncoin’s long-term potential. But rather than lifting prices, the news sparked a “sell the news” reaction. TON slid more than 5% shortly after the update, a move many interpreted as pure profit-taking.

This kind of market reaction is not unusual. Similar funding deals have often led to declines rather than gains. For instance, Toncoin previously fell 60% from its peak following earlier venture capital investments. Such announcements are often viewed as liquidity events, giving large holders a chance to exit, rather than signs of lasting demand.

Timing also plays a role. Verb’s deal is not set to close until August 7, and TON Strategy Co. has not started buying tokens yet. Until then, market expectations may run ahead of actual demand. If accumulation picks up after the deal is finalized, sentiment could shift. But for now, the excitement has clearly faded.

Whale Ownership Adds Pressure

TON's recent volatility can be partly explained by how its supply is distributed. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that around 68% of Toncoin’s supply is held by whale addresses, while only 20% is held by long-term investors. This imbalance increases the risk of volatility.

When large holders begin to sell, especially around key price points like $3.50, the impact can be significant. The 57% spike in trading volume seen this week may reflect coordinated profit-taking by major wallets, possibly in response to the treasury announcement.

Toncoin’s turnover rate is also unusually high at 6.06%, compared to just 0.6% for BTC. This suggests that many large transactions are driven by short-term activity rather than long-term conviction. As a result, even positive developments may struggle to attract lasting investment unless ownership becomes more distributed.

For now, TON’s price is likely to remain highly sensitive to the behavior of a small group of major players.

Technical Signals Lean Bearish

Toncoin has dropped below several key short-term support indicators. It recently moved under its 7-day simple moving average at $3.49 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.35. These levels are often used by swing traders and algorithmic strategies. The MACD histogram has turned negative, currently reading -0.0137, pointing to increasing bearish pressure.

Attention is now on the $3.10 support area, where over 1.2 million addresses hold more than 740 million TON. This concentration creates a strong structural and psychological level. A daily close beneath it could trigger a sharp decline toward $2.80, especially if automated sell orders are activated.

Meanwhile, the RSI remains at approximately 57.5. This is considered neutral and suggests there is still room for further downside before oversold conditions are reached. That opens the door to continued selling in the short term.

From a broader perspective, the indicators suggest that Toncoin is losing upward momentum at a moment when sentiment was expected to improve.

What to Expect from TON?

Toncoin’s price drop reflects a mix of profit-taking, concentrated ownership, and fading short-term momentum. Despite the scale of the treasury announcement, the market’s reaction shows a preference for caution over speculation.

Looking ahead, all eyes are on the $3.10 support level and whether accumulation picks up post-August 7. Until then, Toncoin may continue facing pressure from large holders and uncertain sentiment.