Historic $27B Options Expiry Will Happen Today: How Will It Impact BTC and ETH?

Crypto markets are on alert ahead of a significant year-end event. More than $27 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire on Deribit on December 26, representing over half of the exchange’s total open interest. Analysts and traders are monitoring the situation closely, as this "Boxing Day" expiry could trigger market movements extending into 2026 and mark one of the largest structural adjustments in crypto history.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Face Record Expiry

Today’s options expiry is historic. Bitcoin accounts for $23.6 billion of expiring contracts, while Ethereum represents $3.8 billion. Current market values are approximately $89,394 for BTC and $2,987 for ETH. Yet, the focus is less on immediate price movements and more on the mechanics behind these contracts.

Call options outweigh puts nearly three to one, indicating widespread bullish sentiment, though the implications are complex. Max pain levels, where sellers benefit most, are near $95,000 for BTC and $3,000 for ETH. Spot prices often move toward these levels as traders and institutions adjust their positions before expiry.

🎄 Year-End Options Expiry 🎄
This Friday, a massive $28.5B in BTC and ETH options expire on Deribit, the largest expiry on record -representing over half of total open interest -$BTC: $23.4B+ notional | Put Call: 0.36 | Max Pain: $96K
$1.2B in put OI clustered at $85K, with… pic.twitter.com/c1l3r7Ac6U

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) December 23, 2025

Rollover activity is also affecting short-term market moves. Many institutions are moving positions to January contracts to reduce risk, which can make the data harder to read. According to Greeks.live, although puts accounted for nearly 30% of recent block trades, this should not be taken as a bearish signal. These positions are usually absorbed by smaller traders seeking better pricing.

With the annual expiration approaching, over half of all options will expire this Friday, the DEC 26th. Rollover trades are now the dominant force in trading volume.

This creates significant signal noise, making options data unreliable as a trading signal in recent days. For… pic.twitter.com/zGcBFdaOq0

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) December 25, 2025

Market Volatility and Trader Behavior

Even with a big expiry, volatility has eased. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility is around 42%, down from 63% in late November. However, calm markets do not remove risk. Large expiries can spark quick trading as traders close or roll positions, potentially moving prices in the short term.

Institutional activity will strongly influence market behaviour. Bitcoin calls between $100,000 and $116,000 dominate, while $85,000 puts are the main downside protection. Ethereum shows a similar pattern, with calls mostly above $3,000. How leftover or rolled positions are handled could affect BTC and ETH prices into early 2026.

Year-end liquidity is also important. Trading is thinner now, which can make large moves more noticeable. Even with calm markets, the combination of size, positioning, and timing means sudden swings are possible.

Implications for the Year Ahead

Large options expiries are more than just routine events; they often shape the market’s direction for the coming months. Flows after expiry can influence early trends, reducing certain resistance levels while exposing areas where liquidity is limited.

For BTC and ETH, the expiry carries dual implications. It provides a chance for traders and institutions to consolidate gains or hedge, yet it also poses risk, as sudden moves in low-liquidity markets can cause notable volatility. The choice to let December put open interest expire at 08:00 UTC on Deribit or to extend it will decide if the downside risk is driven by year-end factors or points to a structural reset.

What Does It Mean for Investors?

For investors, the $27 billion options expiry points to possible short-term volatility. Price swings are likely as positions are closed or rolled, particularly in the thinner year-end markets.

The event also offers a glimpse of early 2026 trends. Watching post-expiry flows, changes in open interest, and institutional activity can help investors estimate potential price ranges and manage risk more effectively.