Dogecoin Faces Toughest Q4 in Years: Can It Recover Before 2026?

Dogecoin enters the final quarter of 2025 facing significant market pressure. Trading around $0.17, the coin struggles to maintain the levels that have typically supported its year-end rallies.

Historically, Q4 has been favorable for Dogecoin, with gains of 14.2% in 2022, 44.2% in 2023, and 176.6% in 2024. This year, however, a number of factors could prevent it from achieving similar results.

Holder Behavior and Whale Movements

Examining the behavior of Dogecoin holders helps explain its current struggles. Waves, which show how long people keep their coins, suggest confidence is falling. Short-term holders (1–3 months) dropped from 17.47% in January to 7.24%, while long-term holders (1–2 years) fell from 40.32% in July to 21.87%. More coins are in circulation, which could increase selling pressure.

Whales are also affecting the market. Large wallets holding 10 million to 100 million Dogecoin cut about 4.3 billion coins since early October, worth around $730 million. Wallets with over 1 billion DOGE have been inconsistent, while mid-size whales with 100 million to 1 billion coins have been steadily buying more.

This split among big holders makes it hard for rallies to last. Even possible ETF approvals may not be enough to change this. Analysts are watching closely because whale support often drives Dogecoin’s late-year gains.

Trading Activity Suggests Caution

Volume trends offer additional context for Dogecoin’s Q4 performance. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) has dropped below its early-2025 trend line, indicating that recent price recoveries are not supported by significant buying pressure. This fragile volume structure increases the chance that short-term rallies could lose momentum quickly.

Derivative markets present a similarly cautious outlook. On Gate.io, short positions of $776.75 million are far higher than long positions of $151.77 million. This points to cautious sentiment, though a brief short squeeze is possible if prices rise. Without real buying activity, gains are likely temporary.

Overall, these signals suggest the market is less active than in previous Q4 rallies. Traders relying only on ETF news or social trends may find conditions unpredictable.

Price Movements and Potential Rebound

Since April 2025, Dogecoin has been trading within an ascending channel and is now approaching its lower boundary. Support is located near $0.17, and breaking below this could lead to a decline toward $0.15, representing the first full weekly drop since mid-2025.

Hidden bullish divergences on the weekly RSI indicate a chance for upward movement. Should the channel remain intact, a recovery toward $0.22, close to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, could occur. ETF developments, including a possible Bitwise Spot launch in late November, may serve as a catalyst.

Much will depend on whale movements, trading volume, and market sentiment. Maintaining above $0.17 could help Dogecoin limit Q4 losses and possibly end the year on a slightly positive note. Falling below could indicate a longer-term structural decline.

What to Expect from DOGE?

As 2025 draws to a close, Dogecoin faces a fragile outlook. Pressure from major holders, thin trading activity, and weak derivative signals make a strong fourth quarter uncertain.

Yet technical analysis and potential ETF approvals suggest there is room for a late recovery. While gains comparable to past years are improbable, holding crucial support levels may offer some upside.