Polymarket Predicts Bitcoin Will Surge to $130K in 2025

Bitcoin may be heading for a record-breaking year. According to data from Polymarket, a widely followed prediction platform, traders believe there’s a strong chance BTC could hit $130,000 before the end of 2025.

Recent market trends suggest growing investor confidence, largely fueled by institutional demand and favorable macroeconomic indicators. While such predictions don’t guarantee results, they show what people expect. At the moment, the outlook for Bitcoin is clearly positive.

Strong Odds for $130K Bitcoin in 2025

Polymarket data reveals that there’s a 63% probability Bitcoin will reach at least $130,000 by year’s end. The most favored pricing window appears to be between $110,000 and $130,000, but some traders are betting far more ambitiously: there's an 18% chance it climbs to $200,000 and 11% for $250,000. A minority—about 3%—even believe Bitcoin could cross the $1 million threshold.

While these extreme bets tend to grab headlines, the consensus range shows realistic optimism grounded in recent structural changes. The rollout of spot Bitcoin ETFs, for instance, has introduced a steady stream of institutional capital. For many analysts, this isn’t a fleeting trend—it’s a sign of Bitcoin maturing as a financial asset.

That said, skeptics remain. Longtime critics like Peter Schiff continue to dismiss the bullish outlook, arguing that macro uncertainty and tighter regulation could weigh heavily on Bitcoin’s trajectory. However, if the current momentum holds, 2025 could shape up to be a landmark year for crypto’s flagship asset.

Why Macro Conditions Are Creating a Bullish Setup?

Outside of prediction markets, the bigger picture is shaping up in Bitcoin’s favor. In early May, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell to its 30-year average of 20, following the announcement of a new US-China trade truce. The deal introduced a 90-day pause on tariffs and slashed existing rates by 115% on both sides—a move that’s boosted investor confidence across risk-on assets, including crypto.

At the same time, US inflation appears to be cooling. The April CPI data came in at 2.3%, marking its lowest reading since early 2021. Combined with the market's anticipation of possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, this shift in inflation dynamics is another factor encouraging risk-taking.

Previously, an economist, Timothy Peterson, known for modeling Bitcoin price movements based on volatility data, noted that BTC could reach $135,000 within 100 days if these conditions persist. His model—boasting 95% historical accuracy—links declining VIX levels with price appreciation in assets like Bitcoin. In short, when markets are calm, BTC tends to rise.

Technical Indicators Align with Bullish Market Mood

Beyond forecasts and big-picture trends, on-chain data is showing stronger market confidence. CryptoQuant reports that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has jumped from 20 to 80—a level often linked to big price rallies. This index tracks buying pressure versus selling, and the latest numbers suggest demand is now much higher than supply.

At the same time, researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed to Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index, which has reached 74. It’s not in the “euphoria” zone yet, but it does show a strong rising optimism. Adler says if this trend continues, Bitcoin could soon challenge its previous all-time high near $110,000.

Still, risks remain. In just 12 hours, over $256 million in crypto positions were liquidated, according to Coinglass. Both long and short positions were affected, with Ethereum seeing the largest losses. Bitcoin was also impacted, with $5.29 million in positions closed.

Such liquidations often act as a reset, clearing out excessive leverage and giving more stable investors a chance to step in.

Most Bets Favor a Price Over $110K

Of course, Polymarket doesn't predict the future; it reflects the collective sentiment of traders. Currently, that sentiment suggests a strong belief in Bitcoin reaching $130K by the end of 2025. With macroeconomic trends shifting, institutional demand increasing, and volatility decreasing, this outlook seems plausible.

However, this is still the crypto market, which is known for its emotional swings and sudden changes. Despite the inherent unpredictability, the combination of economic, technical, and psychological factors makes this potential rise seem more plausible than speculative.