Analysts Say Altcoin Season May Not Return Until 2026

The anticipated altcoin season appears increasingly uncertain. Experts, including Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, point out that the main drivers for altcoin rallies are mostly absent now. With liquidity, momentum, and institutional interest favoring Bitcoin, altcoins are left with little influence.

Why Are Altcoins Losing Momentum?

Gracy Chen has spoken about the problems altcoins are facing. In a post on X, she said these digital assets are “fading” and pointed to the October 11 Black Swan event as a moment that made the weak market worse. Chen noted that venture capital for early Web3 projects has been falling for more than a year, reducing new tokens and leaving retail traders with poor risk-reward options.

Also, weekly trading volumes on centralized exchanges have dropped 20 to 40%, showing lower market activity. Some big market makers were also liquidated due to overleveraging, which made investors more cautious. Chen calls this the doubt phase, where traders should focus on projects with real-world uses, such as stablecoins or payment systems.

Why Does Bitcoin Outperform Most Altcoins?

The 10x Research supports the narrative of Bitcoin outpacing altcoins. During this cycle, altcoins have trailed Bitcoin by roughly $800 billion, leaving many retail investors behind. Social media still buzzes with hopes for an “alt season”, but market trends suggest otherwise.

Even in markets that typically favor altcoins, like South Korea, traders are turning their attention to crypto-related stocks. These stocks have delivered strong gains this year, at times surpassing Bitcoin.

Beyond that, the Altcoin Season Index has fallen to 23, its lowest level since mid-July, highlighting Bitcoin’s current dominance. At the same time, online chatter about altcoins has slowed, suggesting investor fatigue.

Institutional Focus and Market Sentiment

Institutional investors now play a leading role in determining the course of the market cycle. Chen points out that these investors have become more risk-conscious, a sentiment mirrored in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, currently at 32. This cautious stance differs greatly from past cycles, when altcoins often surged on the strength of retail activity.

Projects that continue to attract attention are generally those with clear utility or solid fundamentals. Stablecoins, real-world assets, and payment infrastructure tokens remain some of the few areas with potential for meaningful growth.

Even here, the limited release of new tokens reduces speculation. For most investors, focus on research, long-term planning, and careful risk management matters more than chasing quick profits.

What Does It Mean?

For now, altcoins appear to be largely dormant. Analysts believe that 2025 and 2026 are unlikely to see a broad altcoin rally return. With Bitcoin dominating, cautious institutions, and weak retail demand, many altcoins struggle to get attention.

Investors may do better by focusing on coins that demonstrate practical use and established resilience. While prospects exist, they are fewer and demand careful strategy.