Analysts Predict Bitcoin 6X Upside in 2026 Amid M2 Growth

Bitcoin may be approaching a significant rise, with certain analysts forecasting a possible sixfold increase in value by 2026. The driving factor is reportedly a surge in global M2 money supply not witnessed since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. While investors are cautious, history shows Bitcoin often reacts strongly to rapid money supply growth.

M2 Growth Mirrors 2020 Patterns

Recent observations from Onramp Bitcoin co-founder Jesse Myers, shared on X, show a notable increase in global M2 money supply. Current figures show $137 trillion in circulation, up from $129 trillion six months ago.

The growth rate of global M2 is reminiscent of early 2020. Myers notes that the last time the money supply expanded this quickly, Bitcoin experienced significant gains. At that time, a 21% rise in M2 corresponded with a sixfold increase in BTC by early 2021. If history repeats itself, this trend could indicate a major rally for Bitcoin in the months ahead.

Other assets have already reacted. Gold went up fast as inflation concerns grew. Bitcoin’s rise has been slower, which often happens because crypto reacts to money supply changes with a delay. Factors such as regulations and market conditions can shift the timing, but overall, more money in the system tends to help Bitcoin.

How Did Bitcoin React to Past Money Surges?

Bitcoin’s performance in late 2020 may serve as a useful reference. From the last quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021, BTC rose about six times as global liquidity increased. Analysts suggest that today’s conditions, such as *record M2 growth and low real yields, could lead to a similar move.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s movements often coincide with other assets. Precious metals and certain altcoins have historically responded to liquidity expansions. Tracking these patterns can provide early insight, creating a cycle in which rising prices boost confidence and promote further investment in cryptocurrencies.

Still, there are notable differences today. Higher interest rates, stricter regulations, and more institutional participation may affect the pace or timing of any rally. Even so, past trends give a useful idea of potential gains.

The Impact of Economic Conditions on Bitcoin

Alongside M2, real interest rates, inflation expectations, and monetary policy choices remain key factors affecting Bitcoin’s direction. Asset manager Lawrence Lepard describes M2 as the “real rate of inflation,” indicating that traditional targets such as the Fed’s 2% goal may underestimate true monetary growth.

Investors are keeping an eye on interest rates in 2025, including potential cuts by the Fed. When rates fall, assets such as Bitcoin often see higher demand since they become cheaper to hold. Factors like market sentiment, seasonal effects, and global tensions may also shape adoption.

While results are hard to forecast, growing liquidity and a friendly policy environment could support Bitcoin’s rise. However, experts still suggest being careful given the unpredictable market outlook.

Key Implications for Investors

Bitcoin’s outlook looks positive as global liquidity starts to rise again. In the past, M2 growth was followed by major rallies, and something similar may be happening again. If the money supply keeps rising next year, Bitcoin could build momentum and attract more investor trust. But history doesn’t always repeat itself, and different factors could shape what comes next.